Lp(a)HORIZON: primary clinical results
The detailed Phase III results of pelacarsen in patients with elevated Lp(a) and established cardiovascular disease.
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AHA Scientific Sessions 2026
Novartis presents the detailed Lp(a)HORIZON results on Saturday. On Sunday, we show how our mechanistic model anticipated them.November 6–9, 2026McCormick Place, Chicago, IL
Lp(a)HORIZON is the first Phase III outcomes trial to test whether lowering lipoprotein(a) reduces cardiovascular events. Nova simulated it independently and deposited the prediction on Zenodo on June 2, 2026. Novartis announced on September 4, 2026 that the primary endpoint was not met, and AHA is where the detailed results are presented.
The topline release did not carry enough detail for a numerical comparison. The detailed results are the real test, and we will report that comparison whichever way it falls.
Our presentation follows the primary clinical results by 31 hours. Times are Chicago time, with Paris alongside.
The detailed Phase III results of pelacarsen in patients with elevated Lp(a) and established cardiovascular disease.
View in the AHA programFurther analyses of the trial, presented right after the primary results.
View in the AHA programHow Nova's mechanistic QSP model of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was used to predict the trial's outcome before any results were known.
View in the AHA program
Senior modeler, Project Manager of the ASCVD project
Senior author of Nova's prospective Lp(a)HORIZON prediction, of the credibility assessment of its atherosclerosis model in npj Digital Medicine, and of the model's prospective CORALreef Lipids validation in Atherosclerosis.

Professor of Cardiology, Dean of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Tours
Interventional cardiologist at Tours University Hospital and deputy director of the Inserm ISCHEMIA research unit, working on coronary artery disease and myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury. First author of the In Silico trial emulation behind the SIRIUS program for inclisiran, and co-author of Nova's credibility assessment of its atherosclerosis model.
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